Afternoon update on AL94

As you can see, we’re in full blown panic mode here, desperate for the calming influence and feline perspective that the sorely missed Nicholas would have provided in these dark times …

Nevertheless, we struggle on.

At 2pm NHC updated the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) and for the first time I recall have issued a “Key Messages” product for an Invest area: Key Messages for Western Atlantic Disturbance (AL94). Here’s their TWO on top of the latest GOES East IR image:

AL94 should become a depression soon, so NHC has put “magic words” in their outlooks. Recall that “magic words” are “Interests <somewhere> should <do something>.” Here’s the text copypastaed from the official bulletin:

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across that region during the next couple of days.  While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system. 

So the short version is if you are on the southeastern US coast or named islands, “monitor.” I checked the dictionary, and “monitor” does not mean “freak out” or “scare the poop out of people” … it does mean it’s a good idea to know what your hurricane plan is, maybe make sure your car isn’t running on empty, that sort of thing, but don’t be like this guy:

Now, what about the scary words about wind, rain, and storm surge? The current global models are a bit mixed, the 12z (8am) GFS and ECM both show the future Imelda heading towards the South Carolina coast, but the ECM (European) model has interactions with Humberto causing the storm to be weaker, circle and head offshore, whereas the GFS shows less interaction and a Cat 1 hurricane making landfall just south of Myrtle Beach …

Here’s what the primary models look like at the moment …

The bottom line on all that is … we don’t really know. This is all just word salad. Until there is an actual vortex to track, and we get some sign as to how much interaction there will be with Humberto (which depends on it’s track), the models are really just dart throws in this situation. As NHC says, it’s increasingly likely something will spool up, and the chances of some gusty winds and rain with higher than normal tides somewhere on the GA/SC/NC coast (including the Frogmore Metroplex) are certainly there either way. It would seem the potential for more than a Cat 1 isn’t that high, but definitely worth keeping an eye on. The way things are trending, at this point I would expect some parts of the coast to start getting at least watches Saturday and warnings Sunday, so be ready for that. But it will probably be late tomorrow before there is a better handle on things.

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