Humberto and AL94 update (Friday morning)

Lots of electrons are being spewed across teh intertubes and airwaves over the tropical situation in the Western Atlantic, but Zathras (Babylon 5) would probably say something like “Cannot say. Saying I would know. Do not know, so can not say.” But not knowing has never been much of a factor online when clicks are at stake 😛 …

The TL;DR is that Humberto is now a hurricane, with a (mostly) reasonably defined track. Only seems a threat to Bermuda. Here are NHC’s Key messages regarding Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and the current IR and Atlantic warnings map (warnings are still up for the Azores over the remnants of Gabrielle):

AL94 (future Imelda if it spins up) will have to thread the needle between Humberto (which will be strong enough to suppress and toss it eastward into the Atlantic), and over/close to too much land (Cuba, Florida) to intensify. Only if it stays offshore (but not too close to Humberto) can it spin up into a significant tropical storm or hurricane. Which of these three “big picture” scenarios will come to pass? Either of the three seems equally likely to me, maybe leaning towards the “weaker system skirting the coast” scenario.

But expect some watches and warnings along the GA/SC coast this weekend, and disruptions to Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.

For what it’s worth, the ECM (European model) shows the “snag and toss” scenario, with the AL94/Future Imelda closest approach looking like this for early Tuesday morning (2am):

GFS is the ‘Thread the needle” scenario, with landfall as a weak hurricane at Myrtle Beach Monday Evening (here at 5pm Monday):

Here are the major track models for both:

Bottom line is we will have to wait and see if/when AL94 spins up enough to have a distinct vortex. NHC thinks that will happen later today or tonight. There are no new NHC “Key Messages” for AL94 since yesterday afternoon, so the official word as of 6am today (Friday) is for everyone near the red blob to “monitor.” So that’s what we’ll do, and post when there is some clarity, likely late today or in the morning.

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