About that yellow blob …

TLDR: Threat Condition Meh.

The front that passed through and was followed by smoke from the huge fires in Canada, like many Canadians, stalled out and lingered over South Florida. As often happens a low pressure system has some signs of forming out of the tail end. Because it’s early summer (climatalogical summer starts 1 June, astronomical summer doesn’t start until the summer solstice on the 21st), it may develop some tropical characteristics in the form of a warm core, so NHC has it tagged with a 10% of forming a tropical system in the next seven days:

Conditions are unfavorable for anything serious to spin up. Neither of the major global models show anything much. Here is a side by side image of the surface winds and rain rates for GFS (left) and ECM (right):

It looks like the stalled system will drift north and cause unsettled weather the rest of the week over North Florida and coastal GA/SC (the Frogmore Metroplex). So if you see any excitement among the usual suspects, you may taunt them appropriately. Here’s some ideas from a classic historical documentary.

The Orange blob off of the coast of Central America is another thing – it has a 50% chance of spinning up in the next week, and will likely follow a path similar to last week’s Alvin so those on the west coast of Mexico should keep an eye out for something forming there.

---

If you like this kind of commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch) or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media bog (British meaning 😛 ).