Milton Mid-day Manic Monday Update (7 Oct 24)

At 8am NHC upgraded Milton to Category 4 status, based on aircraft observations. This data was used in the 11am forecast, discussed in NHC’s Key Messages regarding Hurricane Milton (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here is the forecast damage swath using my TAOS(tm) TC model:

So does the upgrade mean anything? Probably not a lot – it was expected Milton would rapidly intensify. The timing seems a bit slower, with landfall later on Wednesday than was forecast previously. The short term track is shifted more towards Yucatan, who will be seeing more damage.

The key question remains how strong it will be at landfall and as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and, critically for damage, the exact path. If somewhat south Tampa, it’s bad for Sarasota to Naples, but avoids the dense environment of the I-4 Corridor and Orlando. If even a bit north – Clearwater to Tarpon Springs – it’s a much bigger catastrophe (again, not to be dismissive or insensitive to those who live in Southwest Florida, just focusing on the numbers). That still hasn’t come in to focus yet, and wobbles that small are common, so those in Florida really need to evacuate any low lying areas and follow the advice of emergency management now.

The other big issue is what happens to the intensity as Milton interacts with the approaching cold front, and how it evolves from a tropical to extratropical system. The shear and dry air that the system should encounter as it approaches Florida should reduce the intensity, but may also expand the wind field and thus the damage swath (as shown above).

No real change to the forecast for the wider Frogmore Metropolitan Area (Ft. Stewart/Hinesville, Savananah, HHI, Beaufort, to the northern suburb of Charleston). The discussion from this morning is still valid. Those to the south outside the glow of the heart of the Lowcountry like Brunswick might get borderline tropical storm conditions right on the coast so beware of that.

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Speaking of Manic Mondays, here is the amazing Susanna Hoffs performing Manic Monday in her living room a couple years ago …