Sorry about the extra email blast, I try to only do one or two a day, but today may end up as three if TD4 strengthens in to Debby this afternoon/evening. Things do seem to be coming in to better focus. For Florida things haven’t changed much, but it’s an increasingly different forecast today than last night or this morning with respect to coastal Georgia and South Carolina. The models seem to be coming more in to agreement that the storm soon to be Debby is going to stall out somewhere in the general vicinity of the Georgia coast. If it’s inland it should decay in to just a rain event for Coastal GA and South Carolina. If it’s just offshore, which is what NHC is showing and is a bad if not worst case scenario, it could well be a problem. It will be sitting over a great, self-renewing supply of warm water (the Gulf Stream) and could regenerate. This is reflected in the latest NHC forecast issued at 11am:
Their great summary may be found at the Key Messages regarding Tropical Depression Four (en Español: Mensajes Claves). So if in Florida, keep doing what you’re doing; if in the Big Bend area prepare for a minimal hurricane, if on the West coast (Tampa northward) prepare to be side-swiped and get some intermittent rain bands. For Georgia and the Low Country of South Carolina, expect watches then warnings tonight and tomorrow. It looks more and more like the thing will stall out and Monday through Thursday are going to be gusty and rainy. That seems pretty solid for the inland counties. The big question is the coast – and exactly where and how strong it stalls. There will likely be a very sharp gradient in impacts for this kind of storm, with very different conditions west of I-95 than east as you approach the coastline. This kind of sustained onshore winds could cause some coastal flooding. New Moon is tomorrow, so astronomical tides will be running above average anyway early next week. I don’t expect catastrophic flooding, but for sure the usual suspect areas might see shallow coastal flooding. Will post more on that tomorrow when hopefully there is a better forecast.
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Can’t thank you enough for these updates! I am a new subscriber who was damaged badly by Matthew so I am always nervous when these storms come near us.
Thank you
Thank you. We love your commentary on weather but also other topics you have covered.
Thank you for keeping us informed.
We have a river cabin near Live Oak, FL. TS Debby in 2012 caused major flooding in the area. Looks like this may do the same.
Thank you for all your wisdom and not going off the deep end making it seem like we are always doomed. So glad I subscribe to your emails!