As July oozes to an end, the eyes of the bucolic denizens of the American Southeast are anxiously scanning the eastern skies for signs of the doom lurking just beyond the horizon. Is their angst justified? Let’s find out …
The US National Hurricane Center has had a tropical wave tagged at 60% chance of development in the next seven days, and the orange blob of doom squarely over Florida the last few forecast cycles:
The two main global long range models both indicate this system will spin up – but with very different scenarios. The US GFS model takes the wave across The Bahamas and Florida as a weak disturbance, but spins up the wave up into a strong storm next week, ultimately coming ashore on the northern Gulf coast (Mississippi delta to Alabama) late next week. Here is the forecast for next Tuesday evening (8pm ET Tue 6 August; the maps say Wednesday 7 Aug at 00Z because weather data uses Greenwich Mean Time, which is four hours ahead of ET):
That’s why the NHC outlook has the lobe sticking into the Gulf.
The European Center medium range model paints a different picture. It too has the system continue across The Bahamas as a wave (in other words, just rain), but then curves the storm around the Bermuda High, just off the East Coast of Florida, and spins it up off the North Carolina coast. Here is what the ECM shows at the same time as the GFS map above:
The NHC outlook is a blend of these two scenarios. So the current forecasts are showing a storm potentially forming somewhere near Florida then going somewhere else, not that there will be a mature storm that will form and smash Florida. It looks like a rain event for The Bahamas and Florida starting this weekend and in to early next week, although it needs watching to see if it does spin up faster than the models indicate. For anywhere else, it’s too early to tell.
So what to do? The NHC TWO says it all: “Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.” If you have a hurricane season plan (and if you live within 200 miles of the Gulf or Atlantic Coast and don’t, go here right now and start working on a checklist), it’s not time to panic, just wait and see what (if anything) this does.
Note that Enki is scaling back interactions with Facebook, since it is not a reliable way to convey timely information. We also post to X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch) for what that’s worth. If you like this commentary and would like to get it in a timely manner without slogging through to the social media sewer the best is to subscribe to the email list.
Out of curiosity have you tried threads, and if you have what’s your opinion on it to get news out? I agree Facebook is horrendous.
No, haven’t tried threads, it’s part of the Meta (Facebook) family IIRC. It’s already almost unmanageable so many platforms, etc. it can rapidly turn in to a full time job. The problem is that the platforms all have different interfaces and are now aggressively trying to keep users on their sites. Two years ago I could write something in WordPress, and when I published it the link would appear on Patreon, FB, Twitter, Instagram, VK, Telegram, and I didn’t have to do anything. Not any more.
I have a Threads, Bluesky, and Mastodon accounts, as well as Facebook.
Threads is prob the most Twitter-like, but Mastodon is the one least controlled by any major media company. And I can connect my Burningbird weblog to Mastodon via plug-in.
But I think writing in our own spaces is the way to go. I just wish we had Google Reader for RSS like in the old times.
I killed my twitter account either right before or after the name change and my understanding is it’s become a hellscape. Threads seems to be ok. I haven’t delved into mastedon just because it seems like lots of little walled gardens (ok, the walls are more like cute little knee high fences). Either way… I’ve add this to my rss feed reader and will get updates that way (RIP google reader, you are still missed).
Really appreciate your commentary since we live on Georgia coast
We live on a GA coastal island. Enki is the only site we subscribe to. Great job translating weather-speak to what we need to know. And how to interpret what National Hurricane Center says.