Beryl looks better on satellite, but the intensity from the aircraft and automated satellite Dvorak estimates still has it as a tropical storm as of 4:30pm …
Here’s the latest Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Beryl (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Beryl is still expected to become a hurricane before landfall. Using my TAOS/TC impact model, the updated damage swath has shifted a bit closer to Houston in the latest forecast:
There are a number of factors that make intensification possible, but also dry air inside the core meaning Beryl may have trouble getting much stronger. NHC is hedging their bets and wanting people to prepare for a hurricane, which makes sense. But in terms of fear, keep in mind that this is probably only going to be at most a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, and moving fairly quickly, so while it will cause some trees down, power outages, that sort of thing, it’s no Harvey in terms of flooding or long term impacts. Landfall will probably be about 2 am CT Monday morning. Unless you are right on the coast, or in a spot vulnerable to flash flooding, this shouldn’t be a catastrophic event, especially compared to what Beryl inflicted on the Caribbean. But be aware of your vulnerabilities, and follow the advice of local emergency managers.
Would you please post some time on how you and others estimate the dollar amount of damages any particular storm may bring? I can’t figure out how you might do that.