Beryl has not yet regained hurricane strength as of 8 am Sunday, but conditions are ripe for it to intensify today into a hurricane again before it makes landfall on the central Texas coast overnight, somewhere between Port O’Conner and Galveston.
Here is a link to NHC’s Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Beryl (en Español: Mensajes Claves) for the official word. Based on the 5 am forecast data from NHC, here is Enki’s award winning “plain English” impact swath map …
On this track the worst of the storm’s impacts should fall between Port O’Connor and Houston, but a slight shift in track, intensity, or size means the impacts in the Houston area will be significantly more or less worse than forecast. To be clear, this will almost certainly be at most a Category One hurricane. So by “worse” we don’t mean like in the Eastern Caribbean. Beryl is what I would classify as “hazardous” but not “dangerous” in that with common sense and basic precautions it will cause disruptions, some light damage, but is not likely to be anywhere near catastrophic. The biggest risks are of waves and storm surge flooding right on the coast, and river and flash flooding inland. There will be power outages, trees down, that sort of thing. Those in mobile homes or less sturdy structures should seek shelter, but typical homes should be ok. Your best bet is to follow the advice of your local emergency managers, especially with respect to evacuations of flood prone areas.
The track models shifted a bit overnight, clustering between Corpus Christi and Houston, One problem is that the storm is taking a curving approach to a curving shoreline, so a small change in trajectory causes a comparatively large shift in inland track. Also, given the worse of the storm will be on the right hand (northern) side, shifts to the north start to put the worst conditions into the Houston metro area.
A huge unknown is how strong Beryl will be at landfall. Right now Beryl remains in a region of shear (winds pushing it in different directions) as well as drawing in dry air. This should abate today, and the fetid waters of the Gulf are very warm, so the thinking is Beryl will intensify this afternoon, perhaps quickly. The models are mixed on this, but NHC is rightly concerned with folks being caught off guard and sticking with the high end of the estimates. But don’t be surprised if Beryl doesn’t recover hurricane strength, or caught off guard if it pushes Cat 2 intensity.
On the NHC track and intensity, Beryl could cause upwards of a Billion dollars in impacts in Texas, adding to the $4 Billion or so of impacts across the Caribbean.
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