As noted yesterday, the system in the Bay of Bengal was forecast to become a cyclone and has done so, although fortunately the forecast isn’t as bad as the GFS model was indicating 24 hours ago. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center has started advisories, and here is what my TAOS/TC model shows for impacts based on their forecast:
The big concern for storms hitting the northern Bay of Bengal is storm surge; it’s probably the worst place in the word for surge. Even a tropical storm like Remal, at 55 kts (100kph) can create storms surges of one to two meters (7ft). That may not sound like much, but the coastline is very low, and highly populated. There are over 90 million people at risk from tropical storm winds and flooding from this storm.
Elsewhere, our first West Pacific storm has a name, Tropical Storm Ewiniar, and is sitting over The Philippines. The main hazard there is from heavy rainfall. Known as “AGHON” in The Philippines (they don’t use the international regional names), Ewiniar is about to take off to the northeast, and is expected to rapidly become a Saffir Simpson Category Three storm (100kts, 182 kph). Fortunately it should stay away from Okinawa and the main islands of Japan, although it might brush the smaller islands of Minami-Daito and Kita-daito. Minami-Daito apparently has a beautiful cave system and underground lake.
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