Been too swamped to post the last couple of days, so here is an update on a couple of things. I didn’t post about the cold snap because, um, it’s winter, and so far (aside from the big winds storms the week of the 9th) this is just normal weather and as should be obvious by now, I don’t do normal 😛
The eruption on Iceland that started on the 14th has ended, although the region in and around Grindavik remains unstable. The latest from the Icelandic Weather Service (who is also responsible for volcanic eruption monitoring/warning) says:
Magma is no longer flowing into the magma tunnel that formed on January 14, and the eruption is therefore over. The updated risk assessment assesses the risk associated with cracks within Grindavík as still very high. (Link to original in Icelandic). So we’re back to watching to see if things calm down, or there is a new outbreak nearby.
The Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (hurricane) season is in full swing. There are two active storms and one invest area. Belal is dissipating over the Indian Ocean after hitting Reunion pretty hard, economic impacts on the order of $700 to $800 Million USD. Cyclone Anggrek is a fish storm, no threat to land at the moment or likely ever. The one to watch is an invest area, SH902024, off the east coast of Australia. The GFS model forecast has it growing into a Category 3 hurricane in the next 4 days before making landfall just south of Hichinbrook Island, about halfway between Towsnville City and Cairns. Economic impacts along that somewhat sparsely populated area would likely be on the order of $800 Million USD, with “only” 338 thousand people within the tropical storm force wind swath and perhaps 7000 at risk from storm surge. Wobbles north or south could (will) change those numbers.
Despite the lack of human infrastructure, there is a major global treasure in the path: The Great Barrier Reef. Cyclones can have a devastating impact of reefs. Although cyclones/hurricanes are a natural process that reefs had evolved to survive, human impacts have made them more vulnerable, especially those already weakened by pollution or rising ocean temperatures. Here is a link to an interesting article by the Great Barrier Reef foundation.
Although the UK Met Office model shows a similar track to GFS (albeit a bit north, directly over Cairns), the other major global models such as ECM and the Canadian model keep the area weak and moving to the south away from the reef, so hopefully it won’t spin up as strong as forecast, but will be watching.
Finally, I had a chance to meet with the station manager and chief meteorologist of WSAV yesterday (Friday). It was an interesting exchange, will write more about it hopefully tomorrow or Monday at the latest.
As always… thanks!