It is southern hemisphere tropical cyclone season, and a major storm is forecast to hit the French Department of Réunion late tomorrow as the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane according to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Here is my TAOS/TC model run from this morning based on that forecast …
If the JTWC forecast is correct, it would be a major catastrophe for the island, with over $3 Billion in economic impacts, approaching 5% of the GDP of the island. Of course slight wobbles make a huge difference – and a northward wobble would put Mauritius in the crosshairs. Already expected to experience tropical storm force winds, any northward shift in track would mean rapidly worse conditions. Like Réunion, Mauritius has a thriving economy in contrast to neighboring Madagascar and other nearby islands, and the economic history of Mauritius since independence has been called “the Mauritian Miracle”. A direct hit on either of these islands would be devastating.
Another eruption has begun on Iceland (link to Icelandic Weather Service analysis, in Icelandic, here is the English link, which isn’t updated as often), this time one of the cracks is just outside of the evacuated town of Grindavik …
Here is a link to a live video …