Christmas/Epiphany Doomwatch (7 Jan/25Dec)

The Holiday season is still in progress, as yesterday, 6 Jan on the Western Calendar, it was Epiphany. On the Julian calendar used by many Eastern Orthodox Christians (notes at this link) today is the Feast of the Nativity of Christ (Christmas), so Merry Christmas again!

In doomwatch news, there is angst over a weather system stalking the land and instilling terror in the unwashed. Do you need to worry? Apparently some folks think you do:

Hmmm. OK, so what’s the reality? As usual, the truth is complex but at least in this case not maybe as scary as the headlines indicate. Yes, it’s winter. Yes, it’s a storm. Yes, there is the potential for severe conditions in a few places. Here’s a quick look.

It should come as little shock that ZOMG! There Will Be Snow! In January! Snark aside this is a big system and will have impacts across the US, snow in the north, some risk of flash flooding in the south, freezing rain/ice mix in the middle. Here is what Monday and Tuesday look like:

Monday has some potential for severe weather across the Gulf Coast:

What about Coastal Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry? Late Monday night in to Tuesday evening is the window for anything interesting. The latest guidance from NWSFO Charleston is it looks like around 2″ of rain, with very gusty winds. There is some concern here (and across the southeast) about very high wind shear – something like 60 knots – that has the potential to spawn tornadoes. How much potential? SPC says “slight risk” – so maybe 5%. 

That said the wind gusts should get pretty high here, so expect power outages, downed limbs, that sort of thing. So what to do? Make sure any stuff outside won’t blow around, pets should be sheltered, don’t travel unless you have to. In other words, use some common sense and this shouldn’t be a big deal, a potential inconvenience but not hazardous or dangerous, with the caveat you should keep your weather radios on and handy in case of a tornado. Just in case.