Iceland Update, Doomwatch, Merry Christmas!

The eruption from last week has ended, however, magma continues to accumulate in the tunnel running near Grindavik, with land deformation and seismic activity indicating this is by no means over. The current risk map (with the new lava flows) looks about the same, but the assessment ends with “The probability of an eruption therefore increases with each passing day.“

So will be watching this over the holiday to see if things break out again. 

In geopolitical doomwatch, the Red Sea situation remains on the verge of war, with another ship attacked (this time much farther from the coast, in the Indian Ocean). Iran is being blamed directly. Israel supposedly ordered Egypt to move away from the border crossings with Gaza – a significant escalation that could create a (more) massive humanitarian crisis. Ukraine continues to fall apart as Russia applies pressure across the entire line of contact, taking over significant locations that could lead to the collapse of the front. The US/EU are considering seizing Russia’s central bank assets still in the West and giving it to Ukraine. This would be both a gross violation of international law and economic suicide, as it would set a precedent that countries could not be assured their assets were safe in Western banks, among other things (link to Foreign Policy, a largely anti-Russian source). The capital outflow (which has already started) will turn into a flood, further disrupting international trade and economic cooperation already under stress. Nose, face, spite.

There are no tropical cyclones anywhere at the moment, a storm system is moving across the US that will bring rain on Western Christmas Day to the southeast. Some flash flooding possible in the Midwest the next day or two.

Of course Monday is Christmas on the Gregorian Calendar. Many people in the US don’t realize that the majority of the Eastern Orthodox Christian world still uses the Julian Calendar, which is 13 days behind the Gregorian at this point. So the Feast of the Nativity will be January 6th on the civil (Gregorian) calendar. The Orthodox Church in America (OCA) and the Greek Orthodox Church use a split calendar, with Nativity (Christmas) and other feasts being calculated according to the Gregorian calendar, but Pascha (Easter) still being on the Julian. And of course the birth of Christ was probably actually in the Spring – we know this because the shepherds were out with their flocks at night, something they only do in the spring to protect the new lambs, as well as other scriptural and traditional references. The celebration of Christ’s birth was combined/hidden with the celebrations of Solstice  Confused? Don’t feel bad – it’s a mess! 

Speaking of ecumenical relations, I wrote an article in conjunction with Fr. John Caparisos and Fr. Michael Kavanaugh on the state of Catholic-Orthodox relations in the December issue of The Southern Cross, the magazine of the Catholic Diocese of Savannah. If you’re interested in that sort of thing it’s at this link, on the left under “Latest Issue”.

Finally, as I look out my office window this morning, the falling leaves are sparkling as they drift through the early morning light like golden snowflakes, reminding us that as screwed up as humans are, nature provides beauty and joy. So please enjoy the season and hopefully spend some time with family and get outside. Just wear your raincoat 😛