As expected Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, off the Pacific Coast of Central America, has intensified enough to become Tropical Storm Pilar. The short version is that it is expected to stay just offshore and not become a hurricane, and therefore be rain event (noting those can cause a lot of damage) – but especially in light of what happened with Otis folks are nervous. Here are the details …
Here is link to NHC’s official Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Pilar. As discussed yesterday the thinking is still the storm will strengthen to just below hurricane strength, stalling for a day or so about 100 miles (160km) off of El Salvador, then be swept quickly out to sea. The stall and turn are critical for two reasons – first, obviously, that the storm stays offshore, and second, by slowing down the storm will cool the waters, thus choking off its own energy supply and preventing it from becoming a hurricane. So, as can be seen in the above graphic, any high winds should stay offshore. However, like most tropical storms, there will be a lot of rain. The US GFS model shows 10 to 15 inches ( 25 to 40 cm) of rain on the coast of El Salvador, with the band of over 5 inches (12cm) covering the coast from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Given the terrain of Central America that means a high risk flash flooding and mudslides. Here is a simplified overview using a parametric rain model:
Elsewhere not much going on, AL96 is an invest area off of The Bahamas that has a low chance of developing, and another disturbance approaching the Windward Islands has some chance for development, but might need watching in a week or so even if it does not develop, as it may bring more rain to Central America on the heels of Pilar. A big winter storm is developing that may impact Europe, more later in the week if warranted.