Pilar update (31 October)

Fortunately it looks like the forecasts are holding up, and the core of tropical storm Pilar (EP192023) is staying offshore and not becoming a hurricane. Here’s the TAOS/TC impact swath map based on the 11am National Hurricane Center data:

It is starting to look like even tropical storm force winds will stay well offshore. The remaining serious concern is rain, although that risk too seems a bit lower than it did yesterday. Given the slow speed and loop just offshore, rain totals could top 25cm (10″) in the mountains on the Pacific coast of El Salvador. That means a risk of flash flooding and mudslides, and is the main concern expressed in NHC’s Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Pilar (link), along with waves right along the coast.

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