Seriously, come back Monday

Lee continues to move west pretty much on the forecast track. The 5 day forecast from NHC [Key Messages regarding Hurricane Lee (en Español: Mensajes Claves)] is now clearly showing the start of the northward turn, as depicted in my TAOS/TC impact estimate:

click if you must to embiggen.

The only concern at this stage are the waves and rip currents in the Leeward Islands. That will spread to the beaches of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and as time goes on The Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the US to varying degrees. As for the storm itself, it is suffering from some wind shear and the intensity has dropped to “only” category three (100kts/115mph/180kph). As it slows and begins to turn it might recover some strength. In any event, all of the major models are (for this kind of scenario) extremely tightly grouped for such a radical change in direction …

So when can we relax? Well, you should already be pretty relaxed unless you have to work this weekend or have something serious to take care of! If you’re in the US or Bahamas and asking what to watch for in order to maintain our present Zen-like state, we should start to see Lee slow down a lot on Monday/Tuesday, and the turn itself materialize in earnest on Wednesday. At that point Bermuda may need to start preparing depending on the exact track. The Canadian Maritime Provinces might get something in ten days or so but that’s way beyond the forecast window.

Elsewhere, Margot (AL14) is dredging up cooler water and nutrients for the fish and transporting equatorial heat poleward in the far Eastern Atlantic. Jova (EP11) is providing a similar service far off the coast of Mexico. Tropical Storm Yun-Yeung is raining out over Japan – it has caused some mudslides and flooding but otherwise damage seems light.

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