Idalia evening update, Tue. 29 August

Latest from NHC is in their Key Messages regarding Hurricane Idalia (en Español: Mensajes Claves) – landfall track shifted about 20 miles west for landfall, but still curves over Savannah and Charleston. The bottom line is that Idalia is forecast to be a very dangerous Category Three storm when in makes landfall in Florida – if you are in that area you should be ready by now, and evacuate immediately if in a low-lying area near the coast. Hurricane force winds will likely persist to at least the Georgia border and and the Valdosta area, but not likely as far north as Jesup/Fort Stewart or the the Savannah area, where tropical storm conditions are still expected. The Brunswick area will probably get strong tropical storm conditions. NHC has posted a hurricane watch for the Georgia coast, since hurricane force winds are possible, but most will remain likely offshore. Here’s the forecast impact swath based on the 5pm advisory …

click to enlarge.

In short, little substantively changed since this morning in terms of potential impacts. Next post from Enki tomorrow between 6 and 7am, when we will be just a few hours from landfall, and a much better picture as to the track and how strong Idalia is likely to be over coastal Georgia/South Carolina.


  1. You are so appreciated for the peace of mind you provide! Thank you for your commitment!

  2. I seriously appreciate the straight science and no bologna. I have shared this site with a ton of people. Thanks!

  3. All y’all are very helpful especially when it comes to giving us enough information to prepare. Hopefully they’ll suspend mail delivery to keep our mailmen and women safe.

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