AL10 forms near Yucatan; Florida as hurricane Wed/Thu?

NHC started advisories on Tropical Depression Ten at 5pm Saturday. The depression, which should become Tropical Storm Idalia tomorrow, is forecast to head north and hit somewhere in northwest Florida (the Panhandle) or Big Bend area. Here is a link to NHC’s Key Messages regarding Tropical Depression Ten for the official word. Here is my TAOS/TC model impact estimate based on the 5pm NHC track:

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Nothing really to add to this morning’s post in terms of possible impacts (link). We will have to watch to see how strong the storm gets – at the moment NHC has it reaching hurricane winds over the Gulf of Mexico but decaying to tropical storm force before landfall. The exact landfall location is a bit uncertain as well, there is a fairly wide spread in the tracks from Panama City in the west to Crystal River, north of Tampa. NHC has split the difference. We should have more by Monday as the storm consolidates and the model guidance gets a better “lock” on the storm. Next update from Enki will be Sunday morning between 6 and 7am, when there should be some new data.

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