Calvin and TALIM? Don no problem

TLDR: Subtropical Storm Don (AL05) in the Atlantic is no factor. Hurricane Calvin (EP03) is weakening as it might brush Hawai’i. Tropical Cyclone Talim may hit southern China as a Saffir-Simpson scale Category Two storm. Here’s the details:

The “selfish forecast” for the US is that Subtropical Storm Don isn’t a factor for anybody. It’s not yet (and may never be) technically a tropical storm because it does not meet the scientific requirements to be classified as one, but it is producing sustained winds near tropical storm strength. It looks to wobble around in the mid Atlantic for another week or so, well away from land.

Hurricane Calvin is moving westward across the eastern Pacific. The current official forecast has it making landfall on the big island of Hawai’i … here are the Key Messages regarding Hurricane Calvin (Link to NHC). It’s still four days out, and may weaken below tropical storm strength by landfall, but the major track models all bring the storm to Hawaii in 4-5 days, so it’s time to start watching it and”preparing to prepare” (in other words, think about what you might need to do) for a weak storm if not actually do anything. On this track impacts would be light, more of an inconvenience than a hazard unless something breaks that shouldn’t. Here’s the swath …

Click any image to embiggen.

The storm with the most potential to cause major problems is in the West Pacific. Tropical Cyclone Talim (which really should have been named Hobbs) is strengthening in the South China sea. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the US agency responsible for that area, just relocated the center and upgraded it to tropical storm strength. Here is the damage swath based on the new forecast (5am ET Saturday):

On this track the storm will likely have extensive impacts in southern China. The huge urban complex of Macao/Hong Kong are likely to be on the fringes, but there are still 45 million people within the potential damage swath, and impacts are forecast at the moment at over $2 Billion, and could easily top $4 Billion US Dollars (PPP). We will have to watch this one carefully, the South China sea is warm, an conditions are favorable for rapid intensification.

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