Georgia floods and tropical update

I haven’t posted about the blob-of-doom in the Atlantic since it’s headed out to sea even if it does spin up. NHC had it briefly at 40% but it’s now down to 10% …

There’s also a storm in the West Pacific, Tropical Depression 31W, that is expected to re-curve out to the north well east of Japan.

Map showing Typhoon THIRTYONE forecast track over the Philippine Sea and North Pacific Ocean, with wind impact zones and projected positions from November 7 to 11.

We’re starting to see some of that El Nino moisture streaming across the southern United States, possibly contributing to the serious flooding in North Georgia this week. There was a swath of very heavy rain across the area north of Atlanta and east of Chattanooga …

Color-coded map showing 72-hour rainfall totals across southeastern Tennessee and northern Georgia, with the heaviest rain near Blue Ridge and Cherry Log.

Unfortunately that rain probably won’t reach the coast in quantity. Here’s the current (2:30pm) radar …

Weather radar map showing precipitation across the eastern United States, with heavy rain concentrated along the East Coast.

Even though we got above average rain last month, and the deep soil moisture has recovered somewhat from the spring drought, the timing on rain events has not been favorable. Here’s the surface (upper 6″) soil moisture plot from near Daffin Park. Unfortunately, most of the area is back in to at least mild drought conditions …

Line chart showing Parkside soil moisture declining from about 82% to 45% between October 9 and November 6, 2026, crossing the wilting point and critically dry thresholds.

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