Sort-of Tropical Storm Josephine, Champi Watch, Vance threatens Mexico

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Last night the National Hurricane Center (NHC) started advisories on Subtropical Storm Josephine, the nor’easter-like system just off the coast of the US. Here’s the TAOS(tm) impact map, based on their forecast:

Map showing the projected storm impacts for Hurricane Josephine, highlighting wind intensity and predicted path across the northeastern U.S. and Canada.
click any image to embiggen.

The reason for the advisories and tracking is that there was some convective activity near the center that had tropical characteristics. This should be short lived and Josephine should rapidly become a fully non-tropical system. Here’s an animation of the wind field …

and rain accumulation over the next 72 hours.

Most of the impacts should be confined to the coast, with the worst remaining offshore. The only practical impact is that now it’s a “named storm,” if you do get damage you will be stuck with a higher deductible due to our screwed up catastrophe insurance system.

Tropical Storm, soon to be hurricane, Vance is threatening Mexico (what, you thought this was a political post?). Here’s the impact estimate and track model map. Beyond five days an landfall in Mexico is possible, or it may skirt the coast as many recent storms have done. We’ll see …

Map showing storm impact estimates for 'VANCE' in the North Pacific Ocean, detailing projected wind swath and potential damage levels across Central America.
Satellite image showing Hurricane Vance and various track models for its forecast path over the Pacific, with geographical references to Mexico and Central America.

Continuing to watch Supertyphoon Champi, still headed for either Taiwan or Japan or both. The models are in a bit better agreement, sort of splitting the difference between yesterday’s stark bifurcation between the AI models and deterministic physical models. Here’s the forecast impact swath based on the JTWC forecast, along with some tracks …

Map showing the projected storm impacts for Typhoon Champi, indicating areas of varying damage potential across East China Sea, Philippine Sea, and surrounding regions with economic impact estimates.
Map showing the projected track of Typhoon Champi near the Philippines and Taiwan, with various forecasting models illustrated in different colors.

On this track, there are potentially upwards of 24 Million people in the damage swath, with economic impacts between 6 and 10 Billion dollars. A lot depends on when and where the storm begins to track into the region of intense shear to its northwest …

Weather map showing wind shear patterns at 850mb and 300mb levels, with arrows indicating wind direction and intensity. A circular formation is present, suggesting low pressure or a cyclone near the center.

That region, the band of solid colors north of the storm, will both steer the storm northeast as well as rapidly tear it apart. It will be a race between the storm motion and decay, with impacts depending on the outcome.

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