The National Hurricane Center has INVEST area AL92 in the Gulf of Tabasco tagged at 80% formation over the next few days as it moves offshore and heads north …
Conditions are somewhat marginal for development, but the models are enthusiastic, so the Tropical Weather Outlook advises “It is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.” Convection did seem to increase overnight, here on the IR satellite loop:
Here’s the current primary model track mix. Note since it just formed there are no track accuracy statistics yet …
Most of the intensity guidance makes it at least at tropical storm, GFS a Category One hurricane, some of the more aggressive regional models a bit higher.
Speaking of GFS, here’s what the GFS wind animation looks like out to day 6:
So what’s the bottom line? A tropical system is likely to impact the northern Gulf Coast next weekend, probably Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, with southwest GA likely to get rain, 6″ or more. At this point it looks like at most a Category One storm, a tropical storm is more likely. For the sacred precincts of the Frogmore Metroplex (Coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, as well as the less blessed environs farther south such as Brunwick, and the industrial suburbs to the north like Charleston), it’s not likely to be much of a factor.
Moving inland across the wastelands towards Atlanta, there is more potential for some heavy rain and breezes but the storm should break down rapidly when it hits shore. Any major impacts (if any) should stay in Alabama. But, again, this doesn’t look like a huge threat. Still, tropical systems can surprise, so follow local emergency management guidance and prepare if you end up in a watch or warning area. Late Wednesday should be when things get serious in terms of watching this thing.
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