A slow moving and finally stalling frontal boundary is moving into the Southeast should bring a few days of rain potential, as well as some thunderstorms. Here’s the national view just before 6am Saturday morning:
While there has been severe weather in Texas and Louisiana, the potential is less today, and marginal across the deep south and the beloved Frogmore Metroplex and environs (aka Coastal Georgia/SC Lowcountry):
storms
When watching these thunderstorms and ran cells, the storm cells are moving southwest to northeast, so just because something is due west of you, beware it may not be moving towards you! Here is the movement and forecast for the next hour (6-7am) as an example:
There is the potential to get some much needed rain. We really need a series of rain events spread out over time, deluges just end up with most of the water running off into the rivers and ocean. Here is what GFS is showing over the next five days:
Unfortunately, while the inland areas look to get a good amount of rain, the immediate coast may not be so lucky. Why is that? The front is slow moving and may stall inland. And along the coast, a natural “barrier” sets up during the day known as a sea breeze front (two/three in this diagram).
Here’s an explanation from NOAA (link), but the TL;DR is that the difference in temperature between land and sea causes local winds to blow inland, keeping thunderstorms that develop away from the coast, as well as potentially triggering and enhancing those right along that boundary. At night this process reverses, and a land breeze develops blowing offshore- this is why often thunderstorms will form inland, then move towards the coast in the evening. But by then, with the sun setting, the energy supply for them is waning, so they fade and produce less rain.
This is a great example of how we can forecast the big picture – lots of moisture in the atmo, stalled front, etc., but can’t always accurately forecast exactly where and when rain will fall, especially on the coast, because it depends on very small details like how strong the sea breeze front is. If it’s a bit cloudy in the morning, the front will be weaker, and rain will reach the coast earlier and stronger. A gap in the clouds might heat the land more, creating a stronger onshore breeze and thunderstorms, but also holding them inland.
If you appreciate the blog, the best way to get it is to subscribe to the emails. You can subscribe and also donate to keep it going at this link. Many thanks to those who have contributed to the blog!
You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch), Telegram, BlueSky, or even Facebook if that is your preferred social media buzzkill. But be aware that social media algorithms don’t show you posts in chronological order, “upgrade” sensationalist material, and “downgrade” posts that have outside links in order to keep you on their platform.