We’re getting an early start to the West Pacific hurricane season, with a potentially bad scenario shaping up. Tropical Storm Sinlaku has formed just north of the Equator, and is expected to more northwest over the next five days towards Guam …
Conditions do seem favorable for rapid development, and may even qualify as rapid intensification. Sinlaku should be a Typhoon (Hurricane strength) tomorrow, and by Monday could be a Category Three storm, flirting with Supertyphoon status. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is currently forecasting Sinlaku to make a direct hit on Guam on Tuesday evening (Guam Time).
Tracking is still pretty spread out, there are other possible scenarios, but guidance has been tightening up in recent runs:
JTWC is probably showing a strong direct hit on Guam in part as a “forecast of least regret” given all the US assets there. An eyewall landfall would make a mess, Guam has extensive US military installations. A direct hit could cause over three billion dollars in damage:
So will be watching this closely over the weekend. Warnings are up, and the Red Cross is already staging relief materials in the Southern Marianas (the island chain of which Guam is a part) depending on which way Sinlaku ultimately wobbles, and how strong it is when it gets there.
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