There are three storms in the Pacific, one each in the West, Central, and East, and NHC has tagged a disturbance in the Atlantic with an 80% chance of spinning up. Here’s the details:
Lorena has degenerated into a post-tropical low. Here is the link to NHC’s Key messages regarding Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Although no longer a tropical cyclone, and technically drifting away from land, it is still dragging a lot of tropical moisture up in to Mexico and, over the next few days, the American Southwest. GFS has the main axis across Baja, Sonora, Chihuahua, then in to New Mexico and West Texas.
This will cause flash flooding and mudslides.
Peipah made landfall in Japan yesterday, and continues to dump a lot of rain across the country. One site in Nara Prefecture got 267mm in 12 hours – that’s over 10 inches for you folks who still measure your beer in hogsheads.
In the Central Pacific, Kiko is now close enough for CPHC to start issuing products such as the Key messages regarding Hurricane Kiko (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Tracking is pretty tight, the main question is intensity.
At this point the storm is still five days away, so there are no watches or warnings, and if it follows the forecast trends Kiko should degrade rapidly over the next couple of days. Still, if you are in the islands (especially the Big Island), monitoring by checking the NHC Central Pacific web site in the morning and evening for the next couple of days is a good idea.
In the Atlantic, the red blob of doom is still making its way across. It is now organized enough to get an invest ID (AL91) and we have discrete model tracking:
The models are now favoring a southerly track across the Windward Islands (Lesser Antillies). GFS is now taking compact storm into the Caribbean then curving north just south of Puerto Rico in 10 days. As I always warn, that far out it is at best an outlook, not a forecast. The official Tropical Weather Outlook has “magic words;” in other words, <someplace> should <do something>, in this case: “This system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week, and interests there should monitor its progress.” So if you are in the Eastern Caribbean, time to start twice a day (morning and evening) check-ins with the NHC web site as there will likely be some kind of storm to look at this weekend.
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