TL;DR: Lorena dumping rain on Baja, Peipah dumping rain on Japan, Kiko aimed at Hawai’i, and Atlantic Angst.
Starting with the real storms, Hurricane Lorena is making landfall on the central coast of the Baja peninsula: Key messages regarding Hurricane Lorena (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Although the storm is losing strength as it moves over colder waters, there are Tropical Storm Warnings up:
The big risk is from rain. As NHC says in their latest discussion, “Although Lorena is forecast to rapidly weaken, abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward away from the cyclone. Because of that, there is still a significant risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Baja California Sur, Sonora, and southern Arizona and New Mexico.” Looks like some areas in Mexico could get 6″ over the next five days, which in the high desert will certainly cause flash flooding.
Moving into the Central Pacific area, Hurricane Kiko is a strong storm (was Cat 4 for a while) headed in the direction of Hawai’i. It’s still over five days away, and will be hitting a less favorable environment so should be decaying before it gets near the Islands. But the models do show “it” (whatever “it” is at that point) passing over or nearby.
So nothing to do at this point but check in periodically (daily at this point) until it gets closer.
In the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Peipah is dumping a lot of rain on Japan – and by a lot, the forecast shows up to a foot (over 30cm) of rain in places. Here’s the track …
… and rain forecast in archaic units because I haven’t reprogrammed the graphics yet …
Saving the least for last, the usual suspects are ginning up angst for a tropical wave coming off of Africa that NHC has tagged with an 80% chance of spinning up in the next week:
It doesn’t have an invest number yet so we don’t have specific model runs, but the longer range (10 day) outlooks – NOT FORECASTS – show something either in or near the leeward islands. Here is what the 00z GFS and ECM models show for day 10 (September 13th at 8pm):
Run to run consistency, which can be a good indicator of reliability, is becoming better; here is what the 06z GFS shows:
So for what it’s worth, it does look like something will spin up. While Puerto Rico may (may) be in the frame in a week or so, indications are it will curve north before being a problem for the US mainland, but it’s so far out at this point and, again, we don’t have regional model tracking or an invest area yet so it’s all just pointless speculation. We should have more comprehensive modeling by tomorrow, but even then it will be a ways out, so probably more of a “check back Monday” kind of thing.
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