Watching Kiko, and Atlantic Angst Update

TL;DR: Tropics are busy again in the Pacific, with a storm expected to pass near Hawai’i, and a new Tropical Depression forming in the South China Sea will hit China as a tropical storm. Atlantic angst decreasing.

The first system to watch is Hurricane Kiko, which is moving into the Central Pacific. From NHC: Key messages regarding Hurricane Kiko (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Swell from the Cat 4 storm should reach the eastward shores of the Big Island and Maui tomorrow, but right now Kiko looks to pass northeast of the lslands as it rapidly decays, with the wind and rain staying offshore …

Map showing the projected path and impact zones of Hurricane Kiko near Hawaii, with color-coded zones indicating potential damage from winds and storm surges.

Still, if you are in the Islands continue to monitor (in between surfing runs of course, but make sure you know what you are doing and if a tourist, unless you are an expert best to avoid!).

Satellite image showing track models for tropical systems in the West Pacific, including Tropical Depression Twenty-Two and Typhoon Peipah, along with indicators of their movement towards land.

In the West Pacific, Peipah is rapidly headed out to sea, but a new depression (TD22) has spun up in the South China Sea. It should move westward and make landfall south of Hong Kong as a tropical storm.

Satellite image showing the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, featuring the Atlantic Ocean with an area labeled '60% INVEST' indicating potential tropical development.

Last and again least, in the Atlantic AL91 (labeled Disturbance #1 on the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook maps). NHC and the models are less enthusiastic about this system, mostly because it is moving into an area of *very* dry air. Here is the GOES Water Vapor image from this morning …

Satellite image showing the water vapor pattern in the Atlantic, with a designated area of interest for tropical development marked as 'INVEST 1'.

Although winds continue to be somewhat favorable, and water temps warm, with air that dry nothing is likely to spin up.


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