TL;DR: Orange Blob on the NHC outlook off the Georgia/South Carolina coast is no significant threat to Frogmore at the moment. Flossie is fading, no threat to Baja. Tropical Storm Mun well offshore from Japan, Invest 98W weak near The Philippines.
Actually, not much more to add to that. Flossie is fading rapidly as it moves away from the Pacific coast of Mexico. NHC doesn’t event have any “Key Messages” on the storm, and it should be post-tropical by tomorrow. Another system is forming behind Flossie, it is likely to stay offshore. Of course, what everybody cares about is the safety of our beloved Frogmore. The area of interest on NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook is at 50% chance of tropical development, but as with yesterday, when you dig in to the details there isn’t much risk for anything dangerous. A weak low or depression will likely form around Jacksonville and slowly wander parallel to the shoreline before wandering inland over the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This will likely just produce rain – maybe heavy in places – and perhaps some gusty winds in thunderstorms from North Florida to North Carolina between now and Tuesday. But if someone didn’t say “tropical system” more than likely you’d just think it was just summer thunderstorms. It might become a depression, but not likely more than that. NHC doesn’t even say “monitor” yet, but I expect they will start to mention that in upcoming outlooks as there is some potential to get a very minimal named storm out of it.
The only other named system in the world is Tropical Storm Mun. Here’s the view this morning from Himawari 9, with both Mun and Invest WP98 marked as well.
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