Update: as of 5pm now a tropical depression, and NHC has started advisories.
The system spawning from a stalled frontal boundary off the Frogmore (SE Atlantic) coast continues to evolve. As of 6am this morning NHC still has it tagged at a 60% chance of becoming some kind of organized system. Here is what the IR sector looks like this morning as the sun comes up (note the satellite managers moved the sector to center on the formation area about halfway through):
The normal model suites are just spinning up, here is the spaghetti map for the early runs:
It is possible that NOAA will send a hurricane hunter airplane in to investigate, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they don’t start advisories on a potential tropical cyclone at some point given the proximity to shoreline.
Bottom line remains this isn’t yet anything to worry about – conditions aren’t favorable for much more than a depression, even if it technically becomes a tropical system that doesn’t mean it will be dangerous – in fact, it might prove beneficial if it brings some soaking rains. NHC does not yet have the magic words saying you should even “monitor” this thing, so enjoy the holiday, maybe check back tomorrow if you are so inclined.
There are some storms in the West Pacific, Tropical Depression Five (soon to be Danas) will cause impacts to both Taiwan and the Mainland coast of China late this weekend and early next week. More on that tomorrow. Tropical Storm Mun will likely become a hurricane and fade well offshore from Japan …
If you like this commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch), Telegram, or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media dystopia.