Here are the official “Key Messages” from the 6am briefing by NWS/Charleston:
The forecast hasn’t changed a lot since Sunday morning. A major winter storm will be moving across the Southeastern US starting today. By Tuesday it will be rapidly moving east, with snow potentially reaching the I-10 corridor across Northern Florida. Across the Greater Frogmore Metroplex (Coastal GA/SC), Tuesday evening is when the event should begin, with rain late in the afternoon Tuesday, changing over to sleet then snow by midnight. Snow should continue through mid morning Wednesday, accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, pretty much shutting things down. Here is the forecast plot for Daffin Park, showing temperature, winds, and precip type/amount:
Temperatures should hit the mid 30’s Wednesday afternoon, so there will be some melting, but will refreeze Wednesday night, meaning Thursday morning will be potentially more hazardous than Wednesday with more icy roads. It also looks like freezing rain will fall, so potentially travel will be iffy until Friday when temps reach the 40’s early and really melt things off. It may not be melted off until the weekend.
The precipitation type will of course change looking north to south .. here is another slide from the 6am briefing:
From McIntosh County (Darien) southward to Jacksonville, the precipitation will likely be freezing rain. When freezing rain/ice accumulations get over about 1/4 inch, you start to worry about power lines and limbs coming down, not to mention the travel hazard and things like black ice on bridges and overpasses throughout the event.
Here’s the animation of snow depth over the next five days from the GFS model:
So the bottom line is Tuesday will be really cold but OK until evening, when the rain comes, followed quickly by snow. Wednesday will be snow/ice everywhere in the white swath in the animation/graphic, Thursday will probably be hazardous travel as well. Friday is a bit unknown at this point, will have to wait to see where the ice/snow actually falls, what happens to it Thursday (including if it gets a boost from another brief round of freezing rain).
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As a lifelong Savannahian I’m quite skeptical. What are the chances of things bobbling in temperature or otherwise and we end up actually just cold rain Tuesday evening, with no danger for driving and such.
Everything points to sleet/snow for the Savannah area – the forecasts would really have to bust for it to just be a rain event. The concern is that if it isn’t sleet/snow, it is so cold near the surface it will be freezing rain, which would be really bad.