We’re starting to get in to the range where we can sort of get a picture of at least the early part of next week. As I’ve warned many times, winter precipitation type forecasts in the Southeast are pretty much worthless more than 72 hours out, and often aren’t really reliable until 24-48 hours. That’s because the difference between snow, ice, freezing rain, or just cold rain is a matter of a few degrees in different layers of the atmosphere; it’s not just the surface temperatures, but the temperatures throughout the entire column of the atmosphere you have to get right.
Given all that, what the models are trending, and more importantly the forecasters at the Charleston NWS forecast office are thinking, is that within the Greater Frogmore Metroplex (Southeastern US, link to map) the rain today (Sunday) should be ending this morning; it’s already moving past as of 7am:
Then the cold starts to move in. With the gusty winds behind the cold front, wind chills will go into the teens inland tonight, 20’s along the coast. So this afternoon go ahead and bring inside pets, plants, and get ready for Monday, which will be a cold clear day. As for temperatures the rest of the week, barely above freezing during the day, into the 20’s along the coast and teens inland, so prepare accordingly.
Tuesday is when things get “interesting.” Morning should be dry, but in the afternoon it should start to rain. So Tuesday will be cold (high of 41 in Savannah), but should be a normal day. Tuesday evening, however, the rain will change over into sleet then snow. Right now, it looks like 1-2″ will accumulate in most areas along the coast, right now it looks like most of Georgia and South Carolina will see some snow accumulations.
Wednesday looks mostly precipitation free right now. But with snow/ice on the ground, travel will be treacherous, so check with the moose outside because Wednesday most of the area will be shut down. Wednesday night we may get another pulse of freezing rain or snow, especially the SC coast and northward. Thursday and Friday also has some potential for freezing rain, but too early to say.
Here’s the obligatory ten day snow animation from the GFS model. By tomorrow, we’ll be able to do more detailed forecasts for later in the week, and after it’s over will know how much snow actually fell 😛 …
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thank you for valuable commentary…the model animation shows Savannah with snow but at the very coast there are square areas with no snow. Can we expect “the coast is clear” or is it just a graphical distortion and the coast should be included?
Great question, the GFS model is somewhat coarse so it’s an artifact. Now that we are within range of the higher resolution models, you’ll see more refined graphics.
I always appreciate you keeping me up to date on the weather. I depend on your reports.
Thank you
Thanks for always being a terrific “go-to” source for reliable GA coast weather updates! The local Savannah tourism industry thanks you.