Just a brief update this Sunday. NHC now has a yellow blob of doom in the Tropical Weather Outlook …
And GFS shows not one but two systems spawning out of the Caribbean (and a big winter storm in the mid Atlantic as a bonus feature) …
The westernmost storm could be a threat to Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic), but at the moment the modeling indicates it avoiding Florida and the Southeast. If it wasn’t for the election it would be threat condition “meh” because it’s a week or more away from being anything, and while the threat to the U.S. is decreasing, still worth keeping an eye on and being proactive with respect to voting (TWO SPACES!). As noted previously, it’s unlikely either of these storms (even assuming they really spin up!) will threaten the CONUS. Puerto Rico is possibly at risk, will have to see on that one (but again impacts are over a week out at this point).
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Trami made landfall in Vietnam, mostly a heavy rain event – which as we all know can be devastating. This storm caused significant damage and loss of life in the Philippines earlier this week.
Kong-Rey is still getting organized offshore, the modeling is still split but seems more focused on a westward trajectory towards Taiwan (where the JTWC forecast line in pink shows it going) or, even more unfortunately, the Philippines. The model consensus is Kong-Rey will become a major typhoon in a few days.
Closer to home Kristy is dissipating, but another storm is forming it it’s wake and to the south, likely to remain of interest only to fish for now but given the day 5 forecast is pointed in the general direction of Hawai’i worth watching.