Not really a lot to add to yesterday’s post about invest area AL94, NHC now has it at a 60% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression, and there is a new watch area near coast of Central America at 30%, but neither have the “magic words” saying anyone should monitor them, so at this stage no need to worry unless you just like that sort of thing. Worth checking back Thursday to see what’s up, as not much chance of development in the next 48 hours. Here’s the 2am TWO on the 6am GOES East infrared satellite image:
Since AL94 is an invest area with a temporary ID, there are model tracks and the usual suspects will be flogging the “spaghetti maps.” Does look scary …
but behind the lines there isn’t much there. The main global models at this point don’t show a significant storm developing out of either disturbance. Here are the Day 7 (168 hour) forecasts from GFS and ECM global models, with the slidee thingee so you can compare them side-by-side …
So while GFS shows a broad area of low pressure, ECM doesn’t so much – and both only show a broad area of near tropical storm winds (the blue areas) not associated with either system, and nothing approach hazardous winds (purple – strong tropical storm, much less red for hurricane force winds). So – at the moment – nothing there yet.
I want to again remind people that there are areas of North Carolina that are in bad shape from Helene, and while Florida wasn’t hit as hard by Milton as expected, there is a lot of damage and most of it won’t be covered by insurance given all the changes in that industry over the last two decades. As the media moves on to other things like the “election”, please don’t forget them (especially NC) and help if you can.
Thank you!