Those frantically watching NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) can be less frantic this morning, as the orange blob faded to yellow …
The one causing the most angst in the Southeastern US is an invest area (AL94), tagged as disturbance “1” in the TWO. While NHC had it as high as 60% formation potential over the last 48 hours, it is down to 30%. As seen in this image, using water vapor in the middle atmosphere rather than cloud top temperatures, you can see it is in a hostile (dry) environment as shown by the deep red areas…
Unless something changes it isn’t likely to even become a depression. Even if it does, the models aren’t very enthusiastic about it being more than a rain event in the Caribbean.
The other disturbance, “2”, is possibly scary given that is where Helene came from, but while conditions are nominally more favorable, it is already interacting with land, and not likely to be steered offshore or into the Gulf (which itself is increasingly unfavorable due to the cold fronts starting to make their way across the region with the onset of fall). Elsewhere, there is an invest in the West Pacific, but JTWC isn’t that enthusiastic about it.
Once again, given all the election and other shenanigans that seem to dominate our “news” cycles, please don’t lose sight of the fact we have a lot of damage and recovery ahead from Milton and Helene all across the Southeast. The best places to contribute are through organizations you know, as unfortunately there are a lot of scams. If you are a member of a faith-based community those are often the best bet as many of those have low or zero overhead (but only groups you know; beware scams here that play on your emotions as well). That said, an Orthodox priest and friend who lives in western North Carolina recommended that for Watauga County (Boone, NC area), the Boone Area Chamber of Commerce has zero overhead and is helping small businesses recover. He also said (as we are aware) it was the mountains, Asheville area and Eastern TN that was hit hardest. So if you have personal contacts in North Carolina or Florida, check with them, they may know of direct ways to help.
Those paying attention may have noticed I don’t have my usual contribution links on these posts, that’s because I think it’s pretty crass to be fundraising for a blog when there are so many people trying to recover from these storms, and it strikes me as profiting from the misfortune of others to do that. In fact, I sort of feel that way about the whole storm commentary thing, given how afraid people are of hurricanes and other severe weather, but it’s the only way to keep this site running since I’m no longer doing funded research in this area. But for now consider helping others.
Thanks for all of the great info.
Do you know Dr. Roy Spencer at UAH? He records the official satellite data for NASA for worldwide upper troposphere temperatures. He has a good article about Florida hurricanes in his blog this month. Reading his blog reminds me so much of yours – same sense of humor, lol.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/