Hurricane Milton remains a powerful category five storm, and is now rapidly accelerating towards Central Florida. Here are NHC’s Key Messages regarding Hurricane Milton (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and current watch/warnings overlain on the GOES IR image:
In Central Florida time is rapidly running out to prepare. The front that has picked up Milton and ejecting it to the northeast is already causing rain across the state as people should be wrapping up their evacuations and preparations. The eye is already visible on radar this morning …
Milton should make landfall overnight, likely around or just after midnight, somewhere around Sarasota. Here is the forecast damage swath from my TAOS(tm) TC model, based on the official NHC forecast:
For what the color codes mean, and what to expect with different winds, read this article (important stuff starts about halfway down).
Using the NHC forecast, the storm will likely cause $60 to $75 Billion in economic impacts. There’s not a lot more to say about potential impacts in Florida that haven’t already been said. If the official forecast pans out (and you should absolutely follow the official forecast for planning purposes, and follow the advice of your local emergency managers with respect to evacuation and sheltering!), it is going to cause a wide swath of significant damage across the state.
On the other hand, there is a lot that can be said about the potential impacts in Georgia and South Carolina. What follows is a discussion of what is likely to happen, and what most people can expect to experience. It is a bit different from what you might be hearing from most media sources, as they are generally giving you the bad or worse case scenarios. Again recall that with any weather event isolated tragic events can happen. So even if it looks to be “not so bad” be careful, and again follow the advice of local emergency management, even if things turn out to be not so bad.
While Milton remains a Cat 5 this morning, it is already encountering unfavorable conditions. If you look at the latest IR satellite loop (which shows cloud top temperatures), you can see the eye is becoming more offset within the cold cloud tops, and there are signs it is filling in …
Looking at the water vapor imagery, you can see dry air starting to infiltrate on the north side – the dark orange area just to the left of the storm, that is already wrapping in to the circulation:
The front that is expected to cause a lot of wind shear over the storm, which will also work to weaken it. Here is the GFS forecast at landfall, with wind shear color coded:
Put all together, it is a race between weakening and landfall. There is another twist, in that a process called baroclinic enhancement can cause the winds to be stronger (due to the contrast between the storm and the surrounding environment), and the presently small wind field should expand. The NHC scenario – rightly – is showing these all interacting in a bad way. But, there is hope that they won’t and a faster decay is very possible. That said, as I keep saying, hope isn’t a plan, so don’t use any of this as an excuse not to evacuate or prepare for this storm – don’t bet your life on a forecast!
Most of the forecasts for the Georgia coast are showing much lower impacts than even 24 hours ago. Here is the neat slider thingee showing the GFS and ECM (European Model) forecasts for peak winds off the Georgia coast. All the Tropical Storm force winds are offshore in both of these forecasts:
GFS shows a weaker but broader wind field, ECM shows a stronger center but smaller storm. In either scenarios, only the beaches and perhaps barrier island have even minimal tropical storm conditions.
So what does all that mean? Although the area remains under a tropical storm warning, the Charleston WSFO has downgraded the forecasts for coastal flooding from “high impact” to “moderate impact”, and removed entirely any mention of rainfall flooding. Wind is now listed as a “minor impact” across the entire greater Frogmore metroplex (the coast from the Altamaha River to north of Charleston, including Hinesville/Ft. Stewart, Savannah, HHI, Beaufort (PRONOUNCED BE U FURT 😛 !), and the Charleston, as well as the bucolic inland areas such as Statesboro). Max sustained winds other than right on the coast should remain under 20mph, and gusts should stay below 30 other than right on the beach and offshore. Ordinarily that wouldn’t be worth commenting on, but there is a lot of debris sitting around, and the infrastructure as well as trees and limbs weakened by Helene might come down. So some isolated to scattered power outages are again possible, but shouldn’t be extensive unless something breaks that shouldn’t.
So all in all, other than right on the beach where high surf, rip currents, and gusty winds are possible, Milton shouldn’t a big factor for GA and SC. Winds will be a big gustier and arrive earlier in the far south (Brunswick), weaker and later as you move north. In Savannah, winds should pick up around dawn tomorrow, peaking around 10 or 11am, and die off by sunset. Rain may come in after midnight, but current forecasts for for less that 1/2″. In Brunswick more rain is expected, starting this afternoon, and the winds start earlier (already picking up) and last longer (through Fri Morning), but still remain below tropical storm force.
That’s what it looks like for now, more later as warranted or interesting.
With Helene and Milton basically back to back, is there a 5 year scenario for Florida? Ie the last time I read your position on climate change i perceived you were not convinced. If climate change is real Florida is eventually doomed? But is it short term or long term. Ie like 5 years or 30 years ?
To be clear, climate change is very real. The problem is that it’s tricky to say if any storm, or even several years of storms, are worse (or less bad for that matter) due to climate change. There are signs certain aspects of hurricanes are changing. We don’t have a long enough historical record to make those kinds of assertions, and don’t really have a good enough handle on medium term (decadal) climate cycles.
I believe it is very real ( for over a decade) . thank you. you are the only source we rely upon. it is not easy for me to understand NHC website.
Thanks so much for all you do to keep us well informed.
Thank you for your dedication! Good morning to Nicholas.
Well that’s good news for the Statesboro area! Thanks for all you do with keeping us informed.
We appreciate you so much!
I cringe when the talking heads mispronounce “Beaufort”.
I have been watching and living through hurricanes for 60 years. I think that with the wind shear and drier air entering the system it will be a Cat 1-2 on landfall. Not to say it won’t cause problems but not to the extent talked about on the media.