Milton underwent an eyewall replacement cycle today but is back to category five strength … that said, the big picture, and the discussion on potential impacts on Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina hasn’t changed and the post this morning is still on track (link).
NHC shifted their forecast track a bit south again, with a direct it on Sarasota more likely, but again keep in mind this is likely to be a big storm and the wobbles don’t really matter that much at this point – Tampa is not off the hook because it could wobble back north again, and in any case is still within the forecast strong wind field if not worst of the storm surge.
Don’t fall for the clickbait sites that want you to hit refresh every five minutes. I get a position fix and intensity update every 60 seconds if I wanted to – but I don’t. Here is what the 20 minute automated satellite fix updates look like:
– Dr. L. McCoy.
Watch for trends, not for wobbles or even jumps. Things aren’t evolving that fast, the tracks are pretty consistent, and the warning areas haven’t changed so what you should do hasn’t changed. While there may some room for hope which will be discussed tomorrow, hope isn’t a plan: if you are in the warned areas that are at risk from storm surge, or in a mobile home/manufactured home in the damage swath, you need to evacuate. Period.
Here’s the latest damage swath based on the 5pm NHC forecast.
Will do a landfall preview in the morning.
Between the hurricanes and the insurance problems, I think Florida will be losing population in the next few years.
The Corbomite Maneuver…