Milton continues to drift northward and slowly organize this morning. Here is the latest NHC forecast track and warnings, on the GOES East Infrared image:
The forecast hasn’t changed much from yesterday. We’re in that waiting period as the storm organizes and the steering becomes clear. Here is the forecast damage swath using my TAOS(tm) TC model. Still looks pretty grim for central Florida, NHC is forecasting a landfall right on Tampa/St. Pete this Wednesday:
The tracking remains reasonably tight given the circumstances, here are the major track models:
Intensity is the real question. As NHC notes in their discussion this morning, there are a lot of complexities, and to quote them, “The intensity guidance continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to category 5 strength.” OK, that’s not very helpful.
The problem is an approaching cold front that will be steering the storm east could either gently steer it over the warm fetid waters of the Gulf and allow it to strengthen, or it could cause wind shear over the storm and allow dry air to get in, choking off intensification. We just don’t know which will happen yet.
If you plot out the various scenarios by forecast method, you get a tighter range of possible outcomes than yesterday, “only” $10 to $35 Billion”. Here is a Tukey plot of 64 economic loss models and forecasts:
So what does that all mean? That part is actually pretty “simple”: if you are in Central Florida, be prepared for a potentially devastating storm, unless and until the trend becomes clear it’s going to be weaker than that. Be ready to act quickly when the watches and warnings go up, which will be tonight or tomorrow at the latest. Not much to add to yesterday’s description so I’ll just copypasta it here:
On this track and intensity the storm will be devastating, pumping up to 6 meters (20ft) of water in to Tampa Bay and flooding much of the Tampa/St. Pete area, as well as smashing Sarasota and surrounding communities, with significant damage as far south as the Naples-Port St. Lucie line. Given the rapid expected pace of the storm it will likely sweep across the I-4 Corridor and deposit hurricane force winds across the Orlando area an all the way to the east coast. While the primary runs indicates damage in the $20-$30 Billion range, this could easily reach much higher impacts.
Next update late Sunday afternoon unless something major changes. Until the storm starts to move eastward and develops a bit more, it’s a waste of time to wear out your refresh key. Note again there are no signs in the forecast at the moment that this storm will have significant impacts in coastal Georgia or South Carolina, or inland Georgia and North Carolina still recovering from Helene. It might brush the Gulf coast areas in the Big Bend with gusty wind and rain, and of course the west coast of Florida was brushed by Helene and is still recovering from that. The new HFSA and HFSB models are north of the official track, but until the storm turns east I expect wobbles and 100 mile shifts over the next 24 hours, so don’t panic and don’t chase the windshield wipers. Those in Central Florida shouldn’t panic either, but should take this very seriously and if on the West coast, be prepared for evacuations. It’s also possible to likely the East coast of Florida will have evacuations as well – certainly there will be warnings. And the rest of the swath inland should be prepared to get ready for a rough ride.
I always read what you write…both weather and you views/comments. I have sent a couple of you reports to my son who lives in Slovenia. He grew up in Savannah, and often went to Frogmore area with my father who grew tomatoes/cukes in the area; and I grew up in Beaufort (the Forgmore Metro Area)
My son, Jeff, absolutely loves Frogmore…and thinks of it almost as home.
I am going to sign him up to receive your posts…he knows I am doing. He will be very interested not only in your weather information, but also your deep opinions.
Thanks Arnold Young The Marshes/
Thanks for all of the effort amid chaos and carping! My disabled adult son is in internet is finally back rejoicing mode, so I am grateful and praying for everybody in Milton’s path. I know we are weary at my house and that is with the realization that other areas are far more needy or imperiled by Helene or Milton.
I don’t expect you to be the Oracle at Delphi, but we have certainly appreciated your insight over the years.
Thanks.
Off-topic, to NOAA weather radios:
You’ve consistently advised everyone to get one. We did.
On 9/26, the NWS channel out of Clayton, GA was issuing explicitly dire warnings of ‘catastrophic flooding and wind damage, unprecedented in modern times for WNC’ from Helene. The mechanical voice repeating “it cannot be stressed enough: this storm represents an extreme, unprecedented danger to the lives of those in its path” – and then named exactly the areas in its path.
On this blog, advocating weather radios is always “on topic”!