NHC has a blob in the Gulf that, given the misery Helene inflicted on the Southeast, has a lot of folks nervous. Should you worry? Let’s take a look …
The GFS run last night looks pretty grim …
but the ECM run looks, um, no storm …
The morning GFS run split the difference, a tropical depression over Central Florida.
So what to think? Until there is some consensus among the models and run to run consistency I don’t get excited.
Still power out across a lot of midtown Savannah. We have solar backup power at the office, although we did lose one of our four strings of panels, so on reduced operations. Driving around and looking at the damage, this is very consistent with tropical storm winds. That should be very sobering for Savannians, to think what actual hurricane winds could do, and has done inland and on the Florida coast. And of course seeing the devastation in North Carolina and Tennessee, we should also take note of the difference between relatively static flood waters like we had in Debby, and the horrible damage that results when that water is put in motion.
Hopefully we won’t get another Gulf storm, too early to say either way. Best to carry on with the cleanup, be patient, and, as the great ones say …
Lived in Florida from 1994-2007 and Savannah 2007-2024. Have Always taken hurricanes very seriously. Have often evacuated even when not suggested. Constantly on NHC site and always review Wind probabilities.
Helene was much more serious than I expected based on my interpretation of NHC information and your analysis. My “BAD”. Definitely did not prepare as I did for Debby. Just shows how unpredictable these storms can be.
Live on Skidaway Island and expected winds to be 35-45 mph for short periods of time. Think we experienced more than a few hurricane force wind gusts Thursday night.
Would appreciate letting your readers know, in Savannah area, your perspective what actually happened and what we should learn.
I’m a fan and thankful for your emails.
John Martin
Thank you for your vigilance and volunteering on a Sunday to keep us informed!
Would you explain what caused the unexpected devastation in the Appalachian area? Or maybe it was forecast but I was too busy packing ice into my freezers to pay attention. Still without power here in Savannah right across the street from Candler Hospital but I am surprised at the effect a hurricane whose eye was 170 miles away had on my area. Note for future: remove all trees and suck it up to that whole house generator
I do feel bad for not highlighting that potential, NHC warned of it but I too was focused on getting ready by stocking up on cat treats, litter, etc. The short version is something called orographic enhancement. Wind warm moist air is forced upward by terrain, in basically wrings the water out. That’s why the Pacific Northwest is a rain forest but the other side of the mountains are a desert.
So appreciate your update! Like most, we are still without power and trying to stay informed. Thank you for hopeful news!
Good perspective.
And to your consistent advice to have a NOAA weather radio on hand, I can only add a hearty endorsement.