Francine continued to slowly intensify last night and became a hurricane according to the National Hurricane Center – the official summary is at Key Messages regarding Hurricane Francine (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here are the current watches and warnings as of 5am:
NHC is still forecasting a minimal category two storm at landfall. Here’s the impact estimate from my TAOS(tm) TC model using their forecast:
Economic impact estimates are still hovering in the $2 to $3 Billion range, perhaps a bit higher depending on winds in the New Orleans area. The critical oil and gas infrastructure has been shut in, and should experience mostly transient impacts. The only major refinery now forecast to be in the most dangerous core of the storm, Shell’s Convent refinery, was shut down in 2020 and last I heard was in transition to some kind of renewable fuels, so that won’t impact availability.
Conditions will deteriorate during the day, and landfall should occur this evening. Most of those in the damage swath should only experience tropical storm conditions. The Morgan City area might experience 90mph winds, Baton Rouge 65-75mph, while Lafayette on the west side and New Orleans on the east will likely see 40 to 50mph winds, which means big limbs down, scattered power outages, some light roof damage, that sort of thing. Even if the storm does reach Category Two intensity, that should stay confined to the coast, and given hostile conditions inland, should quickly decay below hurricane strength and be gone by the weekend.
Elsewhere, the two disturbances in the Atlantic are now both invest areas (AL92 and AL93). Here’s a graphic showing NHC’s outlook on the current IR Satellite image:
Neither are a threat to land for now, so Nicholas is sleeping off his post-debate hangover.
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Glad I’m not the only one with a hangover! That drinking game did me in!! 😂
Keep up the good work!