Atlantic calming down (Monday 18 Sept 2023)

TLDR: Tá Nigel ag dul go hÉirinn. A wave is coming off of Africa, NHC thinks may spin up and follow Nigel. A tropical low may form off the Southeast US but shouldn’t be a big deal.

Hurricane Nigel is in a favorable region for rapid development, and should become a Cat 3 in 24-36 hours before turning towards the Northeast and rapidly heading towards Ireland, probably losing its tropical characteristics on the way. No “Key Messages” – the fish just won’t read them.

click to embiggen.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave will exit the coast of Africa. NHC has it as 70% chance of becoming a depression but I didn’t see much on the 00Z GFS run. On the other hand, the last few runs did show a low pressure system developing off the coast of Georgia towards the end of the week. NHC put a yellow blob of doom on their Seven day outlook …

I’m sure the chatterotti will make much of this, but if it does develop it shouldn’t be hazardous (with the usual caveat of common sense), much less dangerous. It will more than likely just create a couple days of messy weather more like a winter storm. We’ll know more by later in the week. Even the notoriously cautious NHC has not put any magic words (“Interests in <somewhere> should <do something>.”), they didn’t even say “monitor.” So don’t harass your F5 (refresh) key, just check back tomorrow.

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