The thing that isn’t even in our ocean yet

Apparently there is talk in the southeast (even in Savannah) about a potential system currently in the Eastern Pacific that is forecast to cross Honduras west to east, end up in the Caribbean, then migrate up the west coast of Florida. Here is the latest NHC seven day outlook that shows the possible formation area at 60% … as usual, click any image to embiggen:

First think to keep in mind is that forecasts out this far are uncertain at best. Worse, the only tracking at the moment is from cyclogenesis models that are also not that reliable. This thing isn’t even really a “disturbance” yet, just a broad area of low pressure, and isn’t an invest area (no 9x ATCF ID). So it’s really not worth talking about at this point except as clickbait, especially from the perspective of impacts on anywhere in the US, other than to say it’s hurricane season and since of course if you are living in the hurricane belt you have a plan so check and restock your Cheetos if you’ve raided your supplies. There is plenty of time once it enters the Caribbean to sort that out.

For what it’s worth, the ECMWF cyclogenesis product is pretty enthusiastic about the thing – here is the map for next Wednesday/Thursday; the big purple blob off the east coast is Franklin:

and the latest GFS run shows a depression like storm hitting central Florida …

So NHC is doing what they should, saying in effect “something might form in that general area next week.” But reading more in to it than that isn’t reasonable. As for any discussion of possible impacts in Georgia, well, that’s way outside the pale: too far out, too uncertain if anything will even spin up.

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