Tropics 21 July 2023

There is an invest area with some potential to spin up. No, not that one – the other one 😛 … AL95 (in the mid Atlantic) doesn’t have much potential to spin up, and if it does conditions aren’t favorable in the long term. NHC only gives it a 20% chance so don’t worry about it. WP98, on the other hand, does seem to have the potential to spin up in the next day or two. The GFS forecast shows it as a Typhoon in 72 hours, and takes the storm over Miyako-Jima (southwest of Okinawa) in four days. Here’s the GFS model impact swath (since it is an invest, there is no official or JTWC track as of yet):

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Don continues to annoy shipping and fish in the mid Atlantic, no threat to land. A tropical depression has formed halfway between Mexico and Hawai’i, but should be short lived.

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