Invest AL93 is now Tropical Depression Three

NHC started advisories on the system at 11am. Here is the first damage swath estimate based on their forecast, however, beware their caution in the discussion:

This should be considered a low confidence track forecast since this type of forecast situation can result in large errors.
Click to embiggen ...

I’m sort of surprised they are tracking across the Leeward Islands as a hurricane in this first forecast, but it is understandable especially since that is the “forecast of least regret.” This track is if the storm spins up to a hurricane in the next three days. The forecasts are a bit bifurcated right now, some tracking across the islands, some doing a sharp turn to the north. If it doesn’t spin up and stays weaker, it should turn north. Either way it will likely be a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Until the storm gets a bit more organized will be hard to tell which way it might go. It depends on the strength of the storm itself, and the evolution of surrounding weather systems.

Bottom line is if you’re in the Leeward Islands, and probably the BVI, USVI, and Puerto Rico as well, worth keeping an eye on and checking in on the official forecast this evening, certainly in the morning. No issue for the mainland US at this point.

Leave a Reply