On IR this evening (Guam time, morning East Coast US) Bavi is a powerful super-typhoon with winds around 145kts, 167mph, or 268kph (Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale). No matter how you measure it, this is an impressive storm …
It should be passing between Rota and Tinian, with the worst impacts towards Tinian/Saipan, but Guam is likely to get hit hard as well. Here’s the TAOS(tm) impact swath …
Again, slight (20 mile) wobbles, which are common with these storms, can make the difference between devastation and only bad with these storms, so prepare for the worst and hope for the best in this case. Conditions are expected to be favorable for the storm throughout the next few days. Here’s the full JTWC forecast …
Next up will be the Ryuku isalnds (Okinawa) or Taiwan. Here’s the longer term guidance and forecast stats for key models, along with the big picture guidance (with tropical storm Maysac on the left raining out over China).
So this storm looks to cause more problems next week.
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