The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC1) is right on the Texas coast this morning. It’s not very organized, all of the convection is being pushed to the east-northeast by strong upper level winds. Here’s the IR satellite view … you’ll be hard pressed to see any circulation in this:
NHC’s Key messages regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone One (en Español: Mensajes Claves) still speaks of tropical storm force winds, but the technical discussion is increasingly pessimistic about the system. Still, Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the north Texas coast, and the watches for the western Louisiana parishes …
The biggest threat from this system is rain. Combined with the complex patterns across the central and eastern US, some areas like Mississippi and Alabama could get quite a bit of rain over the next 4-5 days, and with any tropical system flash flooding is always in the cards. Here’s the GFS forecast …
And here’s the ECM five day forecast …
There are two reasons why PTC1 isn’t developing. First, the “center” (such as it is) never really got out over water and is expected to stay either on the coast or even drift inland. Second, there is a lot of shear. This map shows the difference in wind between near the surface and 30,000 feet. Those straight lines across central Texas are strong wind shear (and in the upper right, very strong).
./gen_raincomp_maps.csh
You might be seeing some chatter about PTC1 developing into a tropical storm over the Atlantic off the US East Coast. If so, it would most likely be moving away from the coast and probably not a threat.
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