NHC starts advisories on PTC1 (16 June 2026)

NHC has started advisories on PTC1, the disturbance emerging from the Texas coast into the Gulf of Whatever. Here are links to the official Key messages regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone One (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here’s the watch/warning areas …

Map showing NHC Watch and Warnings for the Gulf Coast, including Texas and Louisiana, with hurricane and tropical storm warnings indicated.

and TAOS(tm) simulation using the official forecast:

Map showing the basic storm impacts for storm ONE, with indicated wind swath contours, peak wind forecast, and economic impact estimates. Locations and major cities in Texas and surrounding states are marked.

Tracking is reasonably tight. For those in the mountains seeing these tracks and worried about another Helene type event, you will get rain but nothing approaching that kind of deluge from the remnants, which should move rapidly across the region. .

Weather radar map showing track models for a storm system on June 16, 2026, including multiple forecast paths across the southeastern United States.

The TL;DR is that this isn’t likely to be a major storm, a minimal tropical storm at best by tomorrow. It’s not going to get far enough from shore to be able to develop much. That said, it could dump a lot of rain on the Gulf coast and later, as it exits to the northeast, the Southeast (including potentially the sacred precincts of the Frogmore Metroplex, aka Coastal GA and the Lowcountry of SC), but should not approach levels to get worried about (aside from places that usually flood). Those right on the Gulf Coast may get some gusty winds, but the biggest threat from PTC1 is going to be flash flooding.

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