Unfortunately there isn’t any good news and the forecast for Jamaica still looks apocalyptic. Melissa shows all signs of slowly moving over Jamaica over the next 36 hours with landfall west of Kingston as a Cat 4, maybe even a 5.
Here are links to NHC’s Key messages regarding Hurricane Melissa (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Of course, hurricane warnings are up for Jamaica, tropical storm warnings for Haiti. and watches for Cuba.
Although at the moment the radius of hurricane force winds is small, but it is growing, and it is likely the entire island will suffer significant damage with the areas along and east (right) of landfall for at least 50 miles suffering catastrophic damage. That includes the entire Kingston metropolitan area. Not much to add to the blog posts of yesterday evening and this morning with respect to damage estimates: it looks to be horrific.
By Wednesday the storm should be moving over Eastern Cuba and US Navy Station Guantanamo (GTMO), where major damage is also expected. Too early to tell about the Turks and Caicos/southern Bahamas, but likely to still be a severe storm.
As for Haiti, the winds are dropping, although they will likely pick up again Tuesday as Melissa loops back to the east. The rains may continue though, and that means mudslides and flooding throughout the next couple of days. Given the dysfunctional situation there, it will potentially will be a major disaster, but probably overshadowed by what is to come in Jamaica.
What is it that makes forecasters believe that Melissa will suddenly make a sharp right turn? I mean maybe they almost always do that but what is the mechanism? Thanks.