More clarity on Melissa: catastrophe seems unavoidable

The scenarios for Melissa have become increasingly pessimistic. This morning there is no good news. Here are links to NHC’s Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Melissa (en Español: Mensajes Claves). The forecast impact swath looks like this using the 5am forecast:

Melissa is still a tropical storm early this morning, but should become a hurricane by afternoon, and looks to rapidly intensify and become a Category 5 by Sunday evening. Left is IR loop, right is Visual as the sun comes up …

Not a lot to say about the modeling at this point, it’s fairly consistent given the situation, and almost all bad. Here’s the main track map … was hoping to discuss the models yesterday, maybe will get to it today, but the impacts are where the story is.

The really bad news is that Melissa now looks to make landfall in about the worst possible place for Jamaica, on about the worst possible trajectory. High winds will persist for two to three times longer than a typical hurricane. The models indicate that the winds in Kingston will exceed 30mph starting this afternoon, and may not abate until early Tuesday morning. That will a significant damage multiplier as vibration and debris (not to mention rain) will have more time to weaken vegetation and structures.

If this forecast holds up, it seems likely be at least Category 4 winds across Kingston, peaking Monday. Those who will remember Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 know how bad that can be – this will be worse. Storm surges approaching 3 meters (10 feet) are possible in Kingston Harbour. That will cause Port Royal to flood completely, and with the rain meeting the storm surge extensive flooding across Portmore and likely in to Spanish Town; in fact, any of the ravines (gullies) in the area will likely see extensive flooding. Port Esquivel (and the oil terminal, which is likely to be destroyed) and Moores Pen are likely to see 4 meters (13feet) of storm surge.

Although moving slowly, the slightly less-bad news is that Melissa looks to spend a bit less time in the vicinity of Jamaica, so the rains may be lower although still extreme, over 30″ across the eastern half. Totals of 50″ could fall in the mountains along eastern facing slopes. Landslides will be devastating across the eastern half of the island.

Jamaica could see damages over $12 Billion dollars. That is 60% of GDP – the equivalent of a $17 Trillion dollar storm hitting the US, or one hundred times worse, on a national basis, than the worst storm to ever hit the U.S. The reason should be obvious – no one disaster can hurt the entire U.S., but no part of Jamaica is likely to escape this storm.

What of Haiti? On the current track the situation in Haiti is significantly worse than yesterday – more rain, more wind, more mudslides for that unfortunate land and its people. The social structures and economy of Haiti are such it makes no sense to try to calculate it in economic terms. The simple fact is this will likely be a literally unmitigated disaster: unmitigated because there is little to no functioning government to deal with either the storm of its aftermath.

Another looming factor in all of this is that three of the primary donor nations have cut way back on disaster assistance. The US recently dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which was the primary means by which both technical assistance and disaster aid was delivered. Great Britain dismantled its equivalent agency, the Department For International Development (DFID). The European Union has also cut back on disaster assistance, redirecting its efforts towards the the war in Ukraine and building up for a confrontation with Russia. So even if these three power houses decide to help, the ability to rapidly send aid, along with the skilled experts and mechanisms to do so effectively have been largely disbanded. This may end up being short sighted, as this disaster has the potential to unleash a wave of immigration from the disaster areas if there is no significant post-disaster aid and recovery.

After Jamaica, Melissa looks to cross the eastern end of Cuba, where it could rack up another $5 billion in damages, with over 3 million people in the impact zone. The damage swath looks to pass right over the U.S. base at Guantanamo, where damage and impacts could be extensive. We’ll have to see how strong Melissa is after crossing the mountains of Jamaica, and if it recovers over the brief interval in between. The wobbles here will be important – a shift to the east (which is quite possible) and Haiti will take a second hit, this time the northern part of the country.

A weaker storm (Cat 2) is expected to cross the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos next Wednesday, who should be monitoring and starting to get organized. That’s a ways off, we have to get past this weekend first. No impacts are expected to any U.S. territories (other than GTMO).