NHC rapidly intensified over the weekend, going from a tropical storm to Category Five hurricane in under 48 hours. The sun isn’t up over the storm as I write this but here’s the overnight IR loop:
As NHC rightly says in their Key messages regarding Hurricane Melissa (en Español: Mensajes Claves) this morning, this is a catastrophic situation for Haiti, and Eastern Cuba, but especially for Jamaica. Hurricane warnings are up for the region, with watches going up for southern and central Bahamas/Turks and Caicos:
At the moment the storm is barely moving, and shouldn’t move a lot until late today when it will start a slow turn to the northeast. The tracking is all tightly clustered taking the storm right over Jamaica:
That data box on the right shows the average errors of the various track models along with the official forecast (OFCL), and climatology (TCLP, the green line on the left that isn’t really so much a forecast as a reference line showing how storms historically at that position moved). The important thing is the first two numbers, which are the errors at 24 and 48 hours. At this point a catastrophic landfall on Jamaica seems certain, although the wobbles will matter, perhaps a lot, for both the damage toll and human misery sure to result.
Melissa is still on track to make landfall in about the worst possible place for Jamaica, on about the worst possible trajectory. High winds will persist for two to three times longer than a typical hurricane. The models indicate that the winds in Kingston are already at or above tropical storm force and may not abate until late Tuesday or Wednesday morning. That will a significant damage multiplier as vibration and debris (not to mention rain) will have more time to weaken vegetation and structures.
On the current forecast track, the eyewall is forecast stay west of Kingston itself, but Spanish Town might catch the edge of it. Still, sustained winds of 100 mph, coming on the heels of over 24 hours of at least tropical storm winds, along with torrential rains, will be devastating. Those who will remember Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 know how bad things can be – this will probably be worse. And, again, a small wobble of only 30 miles brings the eye wall across Portmore and Kingston itself, causing unimaginable destruction.
Storm surges on this track are around 1 meter (3 feet) range in the harbor, but again 50 mile wobble to the right – easily possible, given the track uncertainties noted above – could cause 3 meters (10 feet) or more inside Kingston Harbour. That wold cause Port Royal to overwash completely. In any event, with the rain meeting the storm surge, extensive flooding across Portmore and likely in to Spanish Town; in fact, any of the ravines (gullies) in the area will likely see extensive flooding, so the hilly terrain and large population to the inland side of Kingston will be exposed to both winds and flash floods. Port Esquivel (and the oil terminal, which is likely to be destroyed) and Moores Pen are likely to see 3 meters (10 feet) of storm surge.
Although moving slowly, the slightly less-bad news is that Melissa looks to spend a bit less time in the vicinity of Jamaica, so the rains may be lower although still extreme, approaching 30″ across the eastern half. Totals of 40″ could still fall in the mountains along eastern facing slopes. Landslides will be devastating across the eastern half of the island, and along with the downed trees and washed out roads it is likely many inland communities will be inaccessible for weeks if not months.
Jamaica is still estimated to see damages over $12 Billion dollars. That is 60% of GDP – the equivalent of a $17 Trillion dollar storm hitting the US, or one hundred times worse, on a national basis, than the worst storm to ever hit the U.S. The reason should be obvious – no one disaster can hurt the entire U.S., but no part of Jamaica is likely to escape this storm. The exiting storm will also cause major damage to the north coast, especially the region from Ocho Rios to Montego Bay, with storms surges in the bay reaching 2 meters or more. Again, the wobbles will matter, as will how much the mountains can tear up the eye wall.
What of Haiti? On the current track the situation in Haiti is rain, a bit less wind, but still potential mudslides for that unfortunate land and its people. The social structures and economy of Haiti are such it makes no sense to try to calculate it in economic terms. The simple fact is this will likely be a literally unmitigated disaster: unmitigated because there is little to no functioning government to deal with either the storm of its aftermath.
Although there are already efforts to stage some aid for rapid delivery, a looming factor in all of this is that three of the primary donor nations have cut back on disaster assistance programs. The US recently dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which was the primary means by which both technical assistance and disaster aid was delivered. Great Britain dismantled its equivalent agency, the Department For International Development (DFID), several years ago. The European Union has also cut back on disaster assistance, redirecting its efforts towards the the war in Ukraine and building up for a confrontation with Russia. So even if these three power houses decide to help, the ability to rapidly send aid, along with the skilled experts and mechanisms to spend it effectively, have been largely disbanded. This may end up being short sighted, as this disaster has the potential to unleash a wave of immigration from the disaster areas if there is no significant post-disaster aid and recovery.
After Jamaica, Melissa looks to cross the eastern end of Cuba, where it could rack up another $5 billion in damages, with over 3 million people in the impact zone. The damage swath looks to pass right over the U.S. Navy base at Guantanamo, where damage and impacts could be extensive. We’ll have to see how strong Melissa is after crossing the mountains of Jamaica, and if it recovers over the brief interval in between. The wobbles here will be important – a shift to the east (which is still possible) and Haiti will take a more extensive second hit, this time the northern part of the country.
A weaker storm (Cat 2) is expected to cross the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, who should be preparing for hurricane conditions by Wednesday.
No impacts are expected to any U.S. territories (other than GTMO). At the far end of the forecast there is some threat to both Bermuda and Newfoundland.
The rest of today, we will be watching for the northward turn (which may have started over the last three or four hours), and for fluctuations in intensity due to eye wall replacement cycles and the approaching trough which is turning Melissa to the northeast. Will post if anything changes.
Good, clear writing. Thanks for providing this service.
Very clear, very well written explanation and analysis. thank you for your timely and realistic assessments.