Monitoring Mexico, Atlantic, Indian Ocean

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TL;DR: Tropical Depression (13E) did form near Mexico, but remains weak/disorganized and hard to recognize on the satellite images. Blob in Atlantic is now at 40% but remains fishy.

Weather map showing Tropical Depression 13E near the Pacific coast of Mexico, with locations and NHC warnings indicated.
click any image to embiggen.

As expected Tropical Depression 13E formed last night near the west (Pacific) coast of Mexico. Conditions aren’t great for it spin up as it is close to land, and while NHC does have it becoming a strong tropical storm, they add “Future downward adjustments may be necessary, and it cannot be ruled out that the system dissipates before the end of the 5-day forecast period.” Here’s the official word in the Key messages regarding Tropical Depression Thirteen-E (en Español: Mensajes Claves). No watches or warnings, impacts likely to be limited to rain and some gusty winds right on the coast, but those in Western Mexico should check advisories this afternoon and tomorrow to make sure nothing unexpected happens.

Satellite image showing the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, highlighting Tropical Depression 13E near Mexico and a tropical wave with a 40% chance of development.

In the Atlantic, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa is now tagged with a 40% chance of spinning up and is now ORANGE! Three things to consider: first, it’s not even an invest area so no direct model tracking; second, those odds are subjective and just an estimate by the forecasters than can radically go up or down, especially at this stage; third, all indications are even if something spins up, it will stay out in the mid Atlantic. For what it’s worth, looking farther out in time at 10 days, here’s what the GFS (right) and ECM (left) models show … ECM just shows a broad wave, GFS shows a tropical storm:

Wind vector map showing weather patterns in the Gulf of Mexico and surrounding areas.
Weather map showing wind patterns and tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean, indicating the presence of Tropical Depression 13E near Mexico and another system in the Atlantic.
ECM (left) vs GFS (right) outlooks, Friday 19 Sept 8pm ET

So nothing to get excited about. Elsewhere, the Pacific remains weirdly quiet. The Southern Indian Ocean has a low-end tropical storm (Blossom) that is weakening, and a weak invest area …

Satellite image of the Indian Ocean showing the tropical storm named 'Blossom' and an area labeled 'Invest'.

So unless you’re in western Mexico, you can safely forget the tropics until Monday.

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